Impact of the Differentials

Top-3 Rated Hurdles

A good way to demonstrate how powerful the Differentials are is with a quick example.

A run of the top-3 hurdles within the price range of 2.0-21.0 gives the following result.

Runs	Wins	Profit/Loss	Strike Rate	ROI
30,856	5,967	-1,197.92	19.3%	-3.9%

All prices to Betfair SP after 5% commission. Years: 2010-2014

Considering that with three runners in every race a perfect strike rate would be 33% and that we would be guaranteed over 20,000 losing horses this isn't too bad a set of figures.

Obviously, we can't follow this as it makes a loss but it's a good place to start.

So let's look at the same races but this time we look at only those which have a positve one year class and weight differential:

Runs	Wins	Profit/Loss	Strike Rate	ROI
16,846	3,372	292.22	20.0%	1.7%

All prices to Betfair SP after 5% commission. Years: 2010-2014

In fact, one can look the four major race types: Flat, All Weather, Hurdles and Chases for the positive class differentials in the top three and note that for each of the years 2010-2014 all of these race types were profitable each year.

This should show how strong these differentials are.