UK Horse Racing's Ratings
Case Study: Wolverhampton 3.50 - 18th December 2011
This race was chosen for no particular reason than that I picked it at random and is due to run later on in the afternoon thus giving me some time to look at the ratings.
The Wolverhampton 3.50
This happens to be another handicap. There's no reason for this to be chosen other than the time was later on in the afternoon.
There are twelve runners declared but two, Mi Regalo and Prince Of Vesa have been declared non-runners.
The detailed ratings file for the Wolverhampton meeting can be viewed here.
The Overview Page
A quick look over the numbers for on the front page of this section suggests that this is a tight race, but not as tight as yesterday's case study.
The underscores are spread all over the place though the RAdj and Raw underscores are on one non-runner and the TrForm is on another. But some do stand out such as the Lst figure of 20.4 on Cerejeira. In addition, Anjomarba has a high HCP rating too. Both are worth taking a note of.
The Stalls Bias
The long term trend is for the low numbers to be the best at Wolverhampton.
Looking at the short term trend we can see that there was a time when the high stalls were preferable but over the last thirty runs the bias has returned to normal wit the low being the best place to be. The higher side of the stalls still is better than the middle it is suggested (page 72, "Recent Winners' Stalls - 7 furlongs").
So, we can more or less go with the long term trends that we see on the overview page for this race but taking into account that being in the centre may be a slight negative.
Trainer / Jockey
Nothing greatly outstanding here.
By that it seems that every jockey and trainer has some sort of claim here. So, nothing outstanding in terms of nothing standing out head and shoulders above the others.
This is, I have to stress, only my opinion. Yours may be different when you look at these statistics.
Looking at the top rated Fleetwoodsands I feel that the horse is going to be there or thereabouts. Could he find anything extra to get thim those extra few lengths that he needs? Yes, he is dropping in class a little and his Encumberance Value of 227 is the lowest it's been for a while but is this going to be sufficient? I think that Fleetwoodsands is going to run close but let's look at the others first to see what else looks good. The change of jockey is another positive with this claimer on board and, besides, we won't be seeing Kirsty riding again for a while.
Well, Anjomarba looks a lot more promising than Fleetwoodsands. Aso dropping in cass by a couple of pounds, a claimer is placed on board and the Encumberance value of 222 (the horse's weight plus the Race Class) suggests that this one is well in with it.
The only concern is the slight negative draw whereas Fleetwoodsands has a better draw.
This Ones For Eddy looks to be set up right for this race. The draw could be a bit of a concern with it being in the centre of the stalls but look at the win on the 20th of June this year. The same distance here at Wolverhampton is a slighly lower class race but was carrying more weight that day. Two outings later at Southwell and that was won in a higher Race Class than today and with a higher Encumberance figure than today's. Looking at the last few races which he lost one can't help feeling by looking at those numbers that today is a better day. A very strong contender and also backed up by the Trainer/Jockey listings on the foot of the overview page. I think that, so far, that this has gone to the top of my list.
Katmai River has similar figures to This Ones For Eddy but just generally slightly less well rated. There's nothing wrong with this one but in order to differentiate between these two I am going to have to rely on the ratings. Should run well though and I do like Steve Drowne as a jockey.
Cerejeira is next. This has that massive Lst rating and the question is, can she keep it up for this race? A great stall; being on the rail in stall one is nothing but a strong advantage. Dropping further in class again for today but the big question is; will the weight be a killer? At 30s on the exchanges at the moment this will be worth a tickle each way at this price.
I don't think that the trainer has any idea as to what to do with Bertie Blu Boy and I have little to suggest neither. He's been tried again at seven furlongs and the drop in class could be beneficial but it seems that everyone here is dropping in class today. Well, it is a Monday, after all, and my feelings of Monday racing is well known. Let's see what happens after today's seven furlong run then we all may have a better idea as to what this horse can do.
Not sure what to think about Fantasy Fry or Emerald's Spirit. Nothing springs out there for me at all. Misere, I feel, is running too long a distance and Mac Tiernan doesn't seem to have any conistency whatsoever. All of these could win on their day but this race just feels that it's full of a rag tag collection of horses just don't seem to like winning.
This isn't a race where anything springs out to me at all and I wouldn't be wanting to back anything in this race at all because there are just too many ifs, buts and maybes. That's not a bad thing because part of manual processing a race is to ask the question, "Is this race worth punting in?" I think that it isn't.
However, if I were given someone else's money to spend and I was asked (at gunpoint) to make a selection then I would say that Cerejeira at 30s on the exchanges simply has to be an each way selection. But only if that gun were loaded and pointing in my direction.
Other than that I would say that This Ones For Eddy could be said to be the deserved favourite but I would be having problems with the 4.3 currently available on the exchanges.
The top rated Fleetwoodsands won by a couple of lengths, followed in by Anjomarba. The prices on these two were good at 9/2 and 7/1.
This Ones For Eddy came in fourth behind Fantasy Fry. The latter was the only of the four 'dregs' that I mentioned which didn't come last so the assessment for these were more or less fine.
Cerejeira came in in price ad went off at 16/1, led and used the rail well and three furlongs out when all was looking good came back to the pack and was swallowed up.
I'm glad that I didn't have anything manual on this race but equally glad that the top rated won it at a half decent price nonetheless.