UK Horse Racing's Ratings

Case Study: 4th January 2015


This is taken from the forum before the racing started on the 4th January, 2015. These are Kaceot's thoughts on the racing for the afternoon which helps to show how he goes about looking for good priced winners in a race.

It would be fair to say that Kaceot's preferred way to look at a race is to find a race where the market looks to be priced up all wrong; perhaps there are too many horses with high prices which shouldn't be. In this case it would be good to back the field over a certain price. Or in some cases it may be worth looking at one or two highly rated horses, or horses with extra-ordinary figures in some fields and then backing only those.

Kaceot's Comments

The 1.30 Naas might be interesting today. We have seven declared runners in this race with the top-2 rated being very short in the betting forecast at 2/1 and 4/5 and then it`s 10/1 bar these two, and yet just a paltry 6lb between the lot of them on our ratings. One to keep a close eye on.

2.20 Plumpton might be another to look at depending on markets structure. Top rated is clear here but then we have 7.35lb between the remaining declared runners (9 of them) There is a similar tale in the 3.25 Plumpton as well and the market might be just right here to have a nibble at one or two of the outsiders, the bottom rated has a huge regression here as well and is not out of it on the ratings.

1.10 Southwell has all the makings of a `shock` result here possibly. The top-2 rated are good forecast prices as well at 14/1 and 16/1 and with all 13 runners pretty much in a heap there could be something here.

1.40 Southwell I would be interested in 2nd rated here and also the bottom rated has a rather high Spd figure of over 22 meaning it cannot be discounted.

2.10 Southwell is the type of race I actually like ratings wise. Just five declared to post here and again top-2 rated are hotpots in the betting and yet the other three are rated in a heap not too far behind. If these hotpots don`t do as the market says they will do then we could easily get a decent priced 3rd-5th rated win this.

3.15 Southwell, well, I like Dandy Nicholls at this track very much and if this race isn`t perhaps made for the bottom few rated then I don`t know what is. The top-2 are multiple course winners but this lot are quite tightly rated and the course specialists at the head of the market will dominate this but we have another multiple course winner lurking down the order in Greenhead High along with another Dandy runner. Again, this could be interesting.

The Result

Clearly not all of these races are going to produce successes but if one looks at the ratings it's clear to see which races could cause an upset because they're tightly rated. As a rule in these races I tend to back everything at at least 15s and see what gets matched before the off. If there's a top rated horse which looks strong then that may get backed at a lower price, perhaps even down to evens, if I feel that it may offer some insurance.

Two of these races produced winners at good prices. In the 1.30 Naas the winner was McInley at 33/1 and 80s on the exchanges and in the 2.20 Plumpton Little Roxy won at 26s on the exchanges and 20/1 at SP.

Further Comments

This was something that I added to the forum after Kaceot's comments were published and it concerned the first race at Naas and is worth sharing.

I am posting this on behalf of Kaceot as he believes that he shouldn`t post it. The reason being is that he doesn`t want to be seen to be `after-timing` but this isn`t the issue here for three reasons.

The first is that he told me about it and, secondly, I am posting the reasons behind this selection for education purposes and a post-mortem on a successful bet is worth its weight in gold. And, thirdly, this isn`t the sort of place where people come to gloat after the event.

Look at the ratings for the 12.30 at Naas. There was a 1/7 odds on favourite, Fort Smith

. It had lost seven times before in maidens and now look at the second rated, Lislogher Lad. Has a one year Class Differential of 15 and a very strong Lst figure of 13.

The other horse of interest was Ballycahane; four underscores one of which was the Conn which was at over 11s. These two ended up first and second.

I am posting this because Mark won`t, whilst I feel that he ought, because this gives a good indication of what to look for.