UK Horse Racing's Ratings

Case Study: 15th August, 2015 - Extracts from my logs


The previous Case Notes were well received and so because of that here's a brief summary from my notebook for the 15th of August.

To follow the notes for this article the Summary Ratings will need to be downloaded from the Archives.

Please download the Summary Ratings for the 15th of August, 2015.

The Selections

The first meeting I looked at was Doncaster and the first race in which anything took my interest was the 4.25 where George Cinq was second rated. The Speed figure of 16.0 was interesting but there was another horse whose Spd rating was 10.4. This was then considered to be too close and so the horse wasn't selected. Nothing else stood out in this race and George Cinq was beaten into twelfth at 14/1.

The next race at Doncaster, the 4.55, had Innocently fourth rated but had interesting Spd figures. Here was a Spd value of 10.9 which was over double that of the second best 4.9. However, because Innocently wasn't rated high enough for me it was ignored. In the end a decent enough sixth position was had at 20/1. In the end the prize went to the top rated Maljaa at 6/1 and perhaps should have been spotted as a selection as the TrFom of 145 was far better than any other in the race. No loss made in this race other than, arguably, a missed opportunity.

The first actual bet at Doncaster, and the only one, was in the top rated Skandar in the 5.25. Top rated and with an HCP of 43 versus 17 it was a definite selection. However it could only mange third at 100/30.

Tamliq Magic was a selection in the 5.55 Doncaster but it wasn't a runner.

The next im my book is the Newbury 2.35 and the top rated Agent Murphy stands out. Not only does it have a massive Spd rating of 19.4 against a 5.4 and an HCP of an astonishing 98 (which must be a record in its own right!) against the next best 39. Agent Murphy went on to win at 11/4 but exchange backers were able to get it at over 7s.

The Newbury 3.10 gave us Mujassam as it was top rated, a good TrForm of 145 and a good Lst figure of 13.4 versus 5.2. Mujassam came in seventh at 7/2.

Newmarket started off with the 1.40 fillies nursery where Bahaarah was second rated but the HCP value of 77 against one of 43 made it a clear selection. She won at 8/1.

Nothing more at Newmarket until the 4.00 when top rated Important Message was selected because, again, being top rated and having a good Spd rating of 15.9 against the next best 7.1. It could only achieve third at 3/1.

The 4.35 provided no joy when second rated Mystical Spirit (HCP 55 vs 25) came in fifth at 9/2.

The 5.10 Newmarket gave us our next winner with She Is No Lady winning at 5/1 and chosen because the HCP was 44 as opposed to another's 16.

One selection at Ripon, in the 4.40 with the top rated Vicky Valentine. This time the Lst was the deciding factor with the value at 16.1 as opposed to 5.2. Vicky Valentine came in second at 4/1.

Only one selection at Lingfield. The 5.00 giving us Angel Flores. In hindsight, i.e. now that I am typing up these notes, I realise that I shouldn't have gone for it. The figures which attracted me were that it was in a good stall, second rated, a Cls of 10.9 v 6.5 and WinF of 7.5 against 2.3. All these are fair figures but none of them are outstanding and there wasn't enough to make this a proper selection. It was a mistake to have selected it and it came in fifth at 5/1. This shows that sometimes selections do creep in when they aren't strong enough and shouldn't be selected. I will put this one down to stupidity, human weakness and the gin.

Two at Market Rasen. The first was Towering, top rated in the 6.45 with excellent HCP figures of 69 which was far better than the next's 24 but could only manage fourth at 2/1.

In the 8.15 Tennessee Bird fared no better coming in seventh at 9/1. This was selected because apart from being top rated it had an impress Lst figure of 14.3 as against the nearest 3.2. Came in 7th at 9/1.

At Tramore the only selection would have been Landau in the 7.25 (top rated and decent Spd figures) but was a non-runner.

At the end of the day I have had 11 selections, three winners and eight losers. The winners came in at 8/1, 11/4 and 5/1 giving me just under eight points profit on the day.